Consultations to begin on introducing OSCE police in war-torn Donbas

Leaders representing France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine expressed support for introducing an OSCE police mission in the occupied territory of Donbas and to begin consultations during a May 23 telephone conversation, reported the Presidential Administration’s press service the same day. The four sides representing the Normandy Format agreed that extending political dialogue needs decisive de-escalation and a full ceasefire, the report said. They called for the creation of safe conditions to hold local elections in the occupied territories.

U.S. President Barack Obama proposed to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in late April to include the U.S. in the Normandy Format, only to have his request politely declined, the dt.ua news site reported on May 21, citing anonymous sources. The report said in recent peace talks, the Russian government tried to impose its own election rules, limiting candidates to residents of the occupied territories and restricting the participation of Ukrainian mass media and political parties. Ukraine rejected the proposal, backed by its Western allies.

Zenon Zawada: The OSCE police proposal is the most promising means to organize local elections in Donbas. However, in our view, it’s not good enough and the sides are very far from reaching agreement. Enough evidence of that is offered by this weekend’s dt.ua report on the rules that the Kremlin wants to impose. Not only do we expect that the rules won’t be agreed upon, but neither will agreement be reached on other conditions, such as removing Russian military and eliminating Russian control from the border with the occupied territories.

On top of all those hurdles, Ukraine’s nationalist and paramilitary forces expressed their fierce opposition to holding elections without full Ukrainian control being restored over the border, rejecting the idea reportedly being floated of the OSCE taking control of the border during elections. These forces have even threatened violence and a domestic military conflict, which we view as credible.

All signs point to the Russians resisting Western pressure and EU member-states getting exhausted from the conflict (and from Ukraine’s internal corruption) and gradually lifting sanctions. While time used to be on the side of the West (before the migrant crisis), the West’s electoral turn towards right-wing parties is switching the advantage in time towards Russia.