Thousands protest Donbas elections without Ukraine control of border

Between 2,000 and 10,000 members and supporters of the nationalist Azov organization, which is fielding paramilitary forces in Donbas, marched through central Kyiv on May 20 to a rally at the Ukrainian parliament, where they protested government plans to hold local elections in Donbas. Among their leaders, MP Andriy Biletskiy, threatened to “chase away” the Ukrainian president and parliament if they attempt to hold the elections without meeting minimal conditions.

Among them, the Ukrainian government must have control of the border for the elections, rather than the OSCE, as he alleged was discussed last week between U.S. diplomat Victoria Nuland and Russian presidential advisor Vladyslav Surkov. Such an agreement will merely leave Ukraine will a legalized, Russian-controlled enclave, without control of its border, he said.

Moreover, Russia will be free to conduct military operations without international recognition as an aggressor, he said. Biletskiy threatened “to bring five to ten times more people” if the elections are arranged, warning that a domestic military conflict could erupt.

The same evening, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Donbas must be returned by military-diplomatic means, not by military means alone, as is being proposed by the paramilitaries. Ukraine must maintain global support and unity in order to resolve the armed conflict, including removing foreign soldiers and returning control of the border, he said, as reported by the UNIAN news agency. Poroshenko called for an OSCE police mission to ensure a transitional period to peace. “To undermine the peace process under any pretext is absolutely irresponsible towards the state and will only lead to parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions remaining under occupation as a result,” Poroshenko told the meeting of the National Security and Defense Council.

Zenon Zawada: Numerous political observers have dismissed the opposition to the Donbas elections as isolated or lacking influence, but we don’t share these views. We view as credible the threats of domestic military conflict being made by paramilitary forces like Azov.

It’s for this reason we continue to believe that Donbas elections are unlikely. Even if they are held, they stand to lack credibility domestically since the presence of Russian military will be alleged by critics (with the reasonable likelihood of that) and they will have occurred in the absence of Ukrainian control of the border.

The failure to hold elections implies is that EU member-states will increasingly support lifting sanctions against Russia, so they could be lifted by next year.