IMF mission to visit Ukraine May 10-18

An IMF mission to be led by Ron van Rooden will visit Ukraine on May 10-18, the epravda.com.ua news site reported on May 4 citing its sources in Ukrainian government. This was confirmed on May 5 by Jerome Vacher, IMF’s Resident Representative for Ukraine. The main task of the mission is to evaluate ongoing reforms by examining monetary and fiscal indicators and to determine whether to release a delayed tranche of USD 1.7 bln.

Alexander Paraschiy:  As expected, the IMF has renewed its evaluation process after the new Cabinet was elected on April 14. Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman’s decision to raise and unify natural gas prices as of May 1 for all consumers (both household and industrial) was a strong gesture towards renewed cooperation. Still, we do not expect the next wire to arrive quickly. Most likely, the Fund will have more demands related to anti-corruption measures before wiring any funds.

Presidential Administration Deputy Head Dmytro Shymkiv mentioned in mid-April that Ukraine needs to approve 19 legislative bills to get the next IMF tranche. So this IMF mission will likely be clarifying a “To Do” list for the government and several prior actions from this list will be demanded to resume financing. Against this backdrop, we anticipate the next tranche to arrive in June in the best case, but more likely in July-August.