Poroshenko expects new coalition by April 12

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in an April 3 interview that he expects a new government coalition to emerge in the first day of the parliament’s work, which is April 12. He threatened to use his authority to dismiss parliament if the coalition isn’t formed within 30 days of its dissolution, a period that he said has already expired. “In the first week of parliament, the country is supposed to have a new prime minister, coalition, and program that guarantees a certain stability in the work of the coalition and government,” he said. Meanwhile, Presidential Administration Head Borys Lozhkin said in an April 2 interview that a new coalition will emerge in the nearest days.

The Fatherland party led by former MP Yulia Tymoshenko and Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party are still potential candidates to form the new coalition with the Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front led by PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said in an April 3 interview Volodymyr Hroisman, the current speaker of parliament.

The Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front are forming a coalition between themselves by buying independent MPs, said in an April 3 interview Tymoshenko. She said this method of forming a coalition is amoral and an additional barrier for other parties to enter the coalition. A coalition between the Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front will be short-lived and will end in the government’s collapse, according to Tymoshenko.

Zenon Zawada: We give the odds of a Poroshenko Bloc/People’s Front coalition at 75 percent, and the odds of a Poroshenko Bloc/People’s Front/Radical Party coalition at 25 percent. Anything else would be out of left field. We believe the new coalition should emerge by April 12.

We agree with Tymoshenko’s assessment that a coalition between the Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front will be short-lived. However, we don’t think the participation of any other parliamentary faction – including Tymoshenko’s Fatherland – will change that. We share the widely held view that parliamentary elections will be held in the fall with Tymoshenko re-emerging as the top challenger to Poroshenko.