Poroshenko Bloc recruiting MPs to form new coalition

Parliamentary Head Volodymyr Hroisman, a close ally to Ukrainian President Poroshenko and top candidate for prime minister, is recruiting MPs to join the Poroshenko Bloc faction in order to form the new parliamentary coalition, the pravda.com.ua news site reported yesterday, citing several MPs. Three MPs who were ejected from the Self-Reliance faction have already agreed to join, pravda.com.ua confirmed this morning.

Zenon Zawada: As they say, necessity is the mother of invention. We thought we explored all the options to form the new coalition, yet the crafty members of the political teams of Poroshenko and PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk have pulled a new method out of their hats. They will boost the membership of their respective factions – Poroshenko Bloc (139 currently) and the People’s Front (81) – to get their 226-vote majority. They had 220 votes collectively before the tactic, and they now have 223.

There are two big disadvantages for the Poroshenko Bloc and the People’s Front in forming this coalition. Given we expect the corruption will only worsen under this alignment, both the public support for the president and his faction will be devastated as they will have to assume full responsibility for the lousy state of affairs, both on the war front and in the economy. Secondly, a formidable pro-Western opposition will emerge between the Fatherland, Self-Reliance and Radical Party factions that will challenge the coalition’s corruption.

This coalition would provide stability for the next three months, particularly in voting on crucial legislation. The Poroshenko Bloc-People’s Front coalition will have the tacit support of the Opposition Bloc and two oligarch-aligned groups of MPs. That means they will have all the necessary votes for amending the Constitution and implementing the controversial Donbas special status, which will inevitably lead to vicious conflicts with the pro-Western opposition, including the nationalists.

The inevitable conflict down the road is that the coalition MPs will strive to keep the coalition intact for as long as possible, given that early parliamentary elections will put an end to many of their careers. And the pro-Western opposition will strive to force them out of power, eventually possibly taking to the streets if the corruption grows too egregious.