Ukraine Treasury residuals almost flat m/m in February at UAH 16.8 bln

The State Treasury of Ukraine reported UAH 16.8 bln in residuals in its unified treasury account as of March 1, its website reported the same day. The residuals were almost unchanged m/m in February, after 1.9x m/m growth in January.

Alexander Paraschiy:Flat accumulations in the Treasury accounts in February may suggest that there was no budget surplus last month. At minimum, it looks like MinFin stopped stocking away some of its funds. It’s not necessarily the case that budget collections have worsened, but we should not be surprised if a slowdown emerges. In particular, the impressive 32.7% yoy increase in January general budget collections to some extent was defined by a low comparative base (as devaluation-driven inflation sped up only in February) in what promises a somewhat slower budget performance further on in the year. Nevertheless, the January budget performance was encouraging in light of the concerns over tax reform. Thus, we are sticking to our 3.7% of GDP deficit target.