Ukrainian parliament registers draft resolution to dismiss PM Yatsenyuk

The Ukrainian parliament registered a draft resolution on the dismissal of prime minister Areseniy Yatsenyuk on Feb. 22, according to the Rada website. The text of the resolution is not available, thus far.  The leader of the Fatherland faction, Yuliya Tymoshenko insisted that it is possible to dismiss Yatsenyuk individually, even though the vote for dismissal of the whole Cabinet failed, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Feb. 22.

The Rada failed to collect enough votes to dismiss the Cabinet on Feb. 16. By law, a dismissal vote cannot be held twice during the same “regular session” of the Rada. The current regular session started in February and ends in August. 

Alexander Paraschiy: Ukrainian lawmakers are creative enough to interpret legislation in their own way, so we do not rule out the possibility that they will find a way to dismiss Yatsenyuk soon, despite the letter of the law.

The Law on the Cabinet of Ministers provides an exhaustive list of ways to dismiss the Cabinet: on the president’s or 150 MPs’ initiative, which has already failed to be approved by the Rada; on resignation of the PM, accepted by the Rada;  and on the PMs’ illness or death. At this stage, none of these options look viable. There is also the option to dismiss a separate member of the Cabinet (which Tymoshenko seems to be trying to do). Though, the opportunities listed by law also provide no mechanism to dismiss Yatsenyuk: a Cabinet member can be dismissed by the Rada on initiative of the Prime Minister (i.e. Yatsenyuk himself); on his (i.e. Yatsenyuk’s) personal dismissal request;  or on his illness or death. 

That said, there could be some loopholes that would allow the Rada to vote soon for Yatsenyuk’s dismissal again, but such an attempt would require the exercise of strong political will from the President and the coalition. Thus far, it does not seem such will is present.

In any case, the risk that Yatsenyuk’s Cabinet will be dismissed soon is far from zero. That means the risk for Ukraine’s financial stability, which is linked to the next IMF tranche, remains high. In particular, we doubt Ukraine will dare to send a renewed memorandum to the IMF unless there is a high degree of certainty that the Cabinet (which will have to fulfill most of the commitments listed in the memorandum) will survive for at least half a year.