Donbas elections, special status not possible at this point, Kuchma says

The leaders of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics aren’t fulfilling the recommendations of the Trilateral Contact Group on a cease-fire regime and exchanging hostages, said on Jan. 20 former president Leonid Kuchma said, as reported by his press secretary. “It’s not possible to talk about elections or constitutional amendments – let alone resolving humanitarian and economic problems and issues of mine removal – without a cease-fire, without the full removal of heavy artillery and confirmation by the OSCE and without the renewal of our control of the Ukrainian-Russian border.” Ukraine is also concerned about attacks against OSCE monitors in occupied Donbas, he said, which reflects the deterioration of safe working conditions. The next meeting of the contact group will occur in Minsk on Jan. 27. 

Kuchma’s position was repeated the same day by Iryna Herashchenko, the president’s ombudsman to resolve the Donbas conflict and member of the Trilateral Contact Group’s humanitarian subgroup. The vote for constitutional amendments that would set the legal foundation for Donbas de facto autonomy first requires all safety preconditions and the fulfillment of humanitarian points, in addition to the military-related requirements of the Minsk accords, she said on her Facebook page. “Pressure needs to be applied on the country violator and occupier, the Russian Federation,” she wrote.

The Petro Poroshenko Bloc plans to include in the parliament’s daily agenda on Jan. 28 the constitutional amendments for decentralization and creating the legal basis for Donbas de facto autonomy, said on Jan. 20 Parliamentary Deputy Head Ihor Kononenko, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine. The amendments have to be submitted next week because it’s the last week of the current parliamentary session, he pointed out.

Zenon Zawada: Indeed the talk about elections and creating the Donbas de facto autonomy is premature when even the most basic requirements of the Minsk accords aren’t being upheld. It’s possible that when these matters come up for a vote in parliament, the Russian-backed terrorists will be ordered by Moscow to halt their fire and comply with Minsk, as they had done when Russian President Putin embarked for the United Nations in September.

Yet besides this on-the-ground problem, the amendments also face a legal hurdle. The law requires the second reading of amendments to be passed by the end of the session subsequent to when the first reading was approved. Otherwise, the procedure for approving amendments has to start anew. A group of 51 MPs has already appealed to the Constitutional Court to determine whether the second vote on the amendments can be held in the next session, avoiding the need to return to square one.

We don’t expect the elections and amendments will be approved this month. At least two factions in the coalition, Self-Reliance and Oleh Lyashko’s Radical Party, still confirm they won’t support the amendments, which require a super-majority of 300 votes (out of 450). And we believe it’s unlikely that elections will be held at all.