Ukraine president still seeking votes for constitutional amendments

The Presidential Administration of Ukraine has yet to muster 300 votes in support of the constitutional amendments for decentralization, Oleh Lyashko, the head of the Radical Party of Ukraine, stated on his Facebook page on Jan. 19. He said the president won’t arrange for a vote on the constitutional amendments next week because it lacks the necessary votes. “Thanks to the positions of the Radical Party, Self-Reliance and Fatherland factions, the threat has been delayed but not liquidated,” Lyashko wrote. “The government isn’t abandoning its attempts to gather the needed number of votes.”

The Will of the People parliamentary group has been offering its votes to the parliamentary coalition in exchange for state support for their business, reported MP Serhiy Leshchenko on his pravda.com.ua blog on Jan. 19. Rather than seeking compromise with MPs of the coalition, the Presidential Administration reaches agreements with the Will of the People MPs, elected on single mandates, many of whom are in the entourage of Opposition Bloc leaders, Leshchenko reported. These votes were secured for approving the 2015 budget, he said. In exchange, Will of the People MPs have gotten their officials appointed to key government posts to manage corrupt revenue streams, Leshchenko said.

Zenon Zawada: The populists and nationalists of Ukraine’s parliament have rallied against the constitutional amendments, while the pragmatic interests that include business are willing to extend their support, possibly on corrupt terms, as claimed by Leshchenko. The constitutional amendments are needed to create the legislative foundation to establish the “specific order” in Donbas, what’s commonly referred to as special status, or de facto autonomy. The specific order needs to be approved in separate legislation, requiring only a simple majority of 226 votes.

The Presidential Administration needs to approve the amendments not only for the Donbas specific order, but also its decentralization plans. The Donbas specific order will be voted upon only after local elections are held, top officials have assured the public. We don’t think there’s a strong likelihood of legitimate elections being organized and conducted in occupied Donbas. Nonetheless, the president is arranging his ducks in a row in case the elections are successful. It’s hard to predict whether he will muster the 300 votes and whether there will be violent opposition, as in August last year. All these things are possible.