Ukraine, U.S. outline goals for 2016

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has seven main tasks for 2016, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told parliament on Dec. 11. They are reforming secondary school education, reforming health care, conducting privatization of state enterprises, implementing tax reform, extending decentralization, fulfilling the EU free trade area and implementing the EU visa-free regime. Yatsenyuk’s tasks mirrored those mentioned by U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt when addressing the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine on Dec. 10. Pyatt’s goals also included accelerating deregulation of the economy, reforming the energy sector, and the creation of conditions that support both domestic and foreign investment. He advocated for parliament’s approval of constitutional amendments to decentralize the government in this session.

Ukraine will join the top 50 economies ranked in the World Bank’s Doing Business Index in 2016 and will reach the top 20 in 2017, said on Dec. 9 Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius, as reported by the epravda.com.ua news site. To accomplish this goal, the ministry has developed a road map of 27 steps, he said. Ukraine was ranked 83 in this year’s rankings. The previous day, Abromavicius criticized parliament for failing to support a bill to amend several laws to enable the privatization of state enterprises. It was the tenth time parliament failed to support the bill, he pointed out in a tweet, blaming the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc and Renaissance group of MPs, as well as the populist Radical Party, for failing to offer any votes.

Zenon Zawada: The goals set for 2016 by the Americans and Ukrainians are realistic, as long as the Russian aggression is contained in its current bounds and the current government remains in place. We should add that in recent months, Pyatt has also intensely advocated for crucial reforms in the nation’s judiciary and prosecution, which we view as less realistic, considering just how intensely they’ve been resisted by the president and prosecutor general. Moreover, the failure of many of these reforms to have a positive effect on the average citizen also threatens their fulfillment as public trust in the government is painfully weak.

The big wild card is the expansion of the Russian military aggression, which will certainly undermine these goals. Unfortunately, we view the odds of an expanded conflict in 2016 as 50/50, at best. The Russian military could have retreated from Donbas already and abided by the Minsk accords, thereby removing sanctions. So its decision to renew heavy artillery fire indicates they’re preparing for escalation.