Ukraine goods trade reaches USD 0.6 bln surplus in 4M15

Ukraine goods trade balance strengthened to a USD 597.6 mln surplus in 4M15 compared to a USD 190.6 mln surplus in the same year-ago period, according to an Ukrstat report on June 15. Exports declined 34.6% yoy while imports fell 37.1% yoy. Exports have most decreased among minerals products (-58% yoy), machinery (-42% yoy), metals (-38% yoy), and grains (-20% yoy).  Imports have declined on the back of slumping demand for vehicles (-58% yoy), food (-48% yoy), metals (-48% yoy), machinery (-38% yoy) and chemicals (-29% yoy). In 4M15, non-energy imports fell 40.5% yoy. Exports to CIS countries plummeted 54.7% yoy and to the EU dropped 34.4% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: The trade balance keeps improving even faster than we expected. The trade surplus reaching USD 0.6 bln by the end of April was our forecast for the total year. Surely, the positive result stemmed from the hryvnia’s devaluation, having dppedened as low as UAH 30/USD in February (from UAH 8/USD in February 2014). By the of March, the national currency strengthened to UAH 21/USD, which means that further improvement of external accounts will likely slow down. Still, in light of the better 4M15 results, we are improving our trade balance forecast to a USD 1.9 bln surplus for 2015 (based on Ukrstat methodology).