U.S. Treasury lifts Crimea restrictions on Internet

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on May 22 that it will authorize access to Internet-based services and software to Crimea residents that had been previously restricted by sanctions. They include social networking sites, as well as messaging and photo-exchange applications. These services and software will remain restricted to individuals who have sanctions imposed against them for their role in the Russian occupation of Crimea.

Zenon Zawada:As we expected, the U.S. has begun to offer Russia concessions as part of negotiations that are currently occurring behind-the-scenes of the Minsk cease-fire protocols. Russia has always rejected dealing with the Ukrainian government, viewing them as U.S. proxies. So the U.S. has decided to accommodate Russia’s desire to deal directly, most recently with Victoria Nuland’s visit to Moscow on May 18.

Russia can’t afford both a frozen conflict and sanctions, which is projected to lead to economic collapse by as early as 2016. So in its attempt to wind down the conflict, the U.S. will offer a series of loosened sanctions that will freeze the conflict in Donbas and enable Putin to save face.

Keeping Putin in power will serve U.S. interests in other foreign policy goals. But we expect the key sanctions will remain in place, which means the U.S. won’t surrender in its ultimate goal of forcing Russia out of Crimea. The overriding geopolitical goal remains replacing the Putin regime with some liberal, compliant alternative, but keeping Putin in place, on a leash, also serves Western goals of maintaining stability in the region.

We expect a complex agreement will be reached this summer that will prompt the Russians to adhere to the Minsk cease-fire accords. The agreement might not be revealed until after it’s apparent that the accords are being upheld.