Ukraine CPI surges 5.3% m/m in February

Ukraine’s consumer prices accelerated 5.3% m/m (34.5% yoy) in February compared to 3.1% m/m growth (28.5% yoy) in the prior month, according to state statistics released on March 6. Prices sped up for food (5.7% m/m in Feb., 4.7% m/m in Jan.), transportation (16.4% m/m in Feb., 1.2% m/m in Jan.), healthcare (4.5% m/m in Feb., 3.0% m/m in Jan.), education (4.1% m/m in Feb., 2.5% m/m in Jan.) and utilities (1.6% m/m in Feb., 0.5% m/m in Jan.).

Alexander Paraschiy: Consumer price acceleration was prompted by the latest devaluation wave, which started on Feb. 5 when the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) cancelled the indicative exchange rate regime. The government’s planned price hikes of 2.9x for natural gas and 40% for electricity for households, as well as 67% increase in heating costs will add to inflation starting April.

However the hryvnia exchange rate will remain the main factor throughout the year. Under the assumption that the hryvnia will not sink much deeper than UAH 30/USD from March, we project CPI growing 30.7% yoy (23.8% YTD) in 2015, compared to the 22.8% yoy (14.0% YTD) growth that we estimated previously.