Russia enhances military presence in Crimea

The Crimean peninsula has become an “impenetrable fortress” following “unprecedented decisions” by the Russian government, said on Feb. 19 Oleg Belaventsev, as reported by the Tass news agency. Large military formations have been established there and aviation has been enhanced, he said. The Russian Black Sea Fleet will be enhanced by submarines loaded with missiles. The Kremlin has spent significant resources on renewing military infrastructure, including the Higher Military-Naval College in Sevastopol and the launch of a Presidential Cadet College.

Zenon Zawada: It’s clear the Russians will not relinquish Crimea, which is what the West is aiming for. Instead, Moscow is investing in its military infrastructure. This is part of why we don’t see a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine for at least another two years, during which sanctions will keep mounting amid ongoing incursions into the Ukrainian mainland by Russian-backed separatists.

In the long view, we see a zero-sum endgame, in which either the West relinquishes and allows Russia to impose authoritarian rule in Ukraine through a proxy government or the Putin regime is ousted and replaced by a Western-friendly government. In the meantime, the conflict will continue to boil.