Ceasefire fails to begin in Ukraine amid defiance from separatists

The second attempt at a ceasefire brokered in Minsk on Feb. 12 has failed, according to the Ukrainian government, news media reports and statements by Russian-backed separatists. Though it was supposed to begin at midnight Feb. 15, Ukrainian forces were fired upon 60 times on Feb. 15 by Russian-backed separatists, reported the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO). Russian-backed separatists spent the day trying to storm the embattled regional railway hub of Debaltseve. “The fighters were given the task of provoking the Ukrainian military and undermining the peace accords,” the press center reported. “For that aim, the criminals use practically all forms of weapons.”

 

The ceasefire was immediately undermined when the town of Popasna was fired upon at 00:15 from the Grad rapid fire missile launchers, the ATO press center reported. Between 8:25 and 15:10, the terrorists shot the regional center of Donetsk using mortars. In the 24 hours leading up to Sunday afternoon, nine Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 39 wounded, the ATO press center reported. In response to the Ukrainian government’s claim that they were using Russian-made Grad missile launchers, the separatists claimed they weren’t using the weapon and are firing from long-barreled artillery only in response.

 

The morning of Feb. 15, the Russian-backed terrorists continued to attack the town of Shyrokyne, where intense battles in the prior day resulted in destruction of three tanks and other hardware, as well as more than 100 casualties, reported the Azov battalion. The Russian-backed forces also shot at Azov battalion positions near the key port city of Mariupol the morning of Feb. 15. The city center of Horlivka (population 254,000) was attacked with Grad missiles on Feb. 15, reported Viacheslav Abroskin, the head of the Donetsk regional police.

 

In a Feb. 15 telephone call involving the heads of state of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko stressed the need for a total ceasefire before the removal of heavy artillery and hardware could begin. The ceasefire must apply to the entire line of conflict, including the districts of Debaltseve, Poroshenko said. The prior night, Poroshenko wanted that the peace process was under great threat because of ongoing separatist attacks on Debaltseve.

 

“The entire world held its breath and is nervously awaiting dawn,” he said. “Those who want to violate the peace process at its very start are warning about its consequences. I am consciously not going to speak now about what Ukraine will do if the peace process is undermined. I will only say one thing – getting slapped across one cheek, we won’t turn the other, and may God forgive me.”

 

Eduard Basurin, the defense minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), said on Feb. 15 his fighters have the right to fire on Debaltseve because “it’s our territory,” reported the Reuters news agency. In response to the statement, Russian Presidential Administration Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the conditions that serve as the basis of the Feb. 12 ceasefire agreement must be upheld “without reservations,” as reported by the Reuters news agency.

 

The same morning, the leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic didn’t allow observers with the special monitoring mission of the OSCE to inspect Debaltseve, reported Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. The same day, DNR self-proclaimed Prime Minister Alkesandr Zakharchenko threatened to “recapture” Mariupol and “take” Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, if the ceasefire isn’t upheld.

 

The Russian government will be held responsible for undermining the Feb. 12 Minsk accords even if the separatists violate them even on a formal basis, said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on a television interview on Feb. 15. “If the situation improves, the sanctions will be reduced,” he said. “If Russia or the separatists don’t fulfill (the ceasefire requirements), there will be new sanctions.”

 

Zenon Zawada: The situation is worse than even the most pessimistic scenarios, including our own, which gave the ceasefire at least a few weeks for survival before it disintegrated. We expect a diplomatic fiasco, with a new round of sanctions on the horizon. The Russian forces are making it appear as though the separatists are violating the agreement independent of the Kremlin but we agree with the common view that it’s a cynical Kremlin plot to shift responsibility.

 

The big question is whether the Ukrainian president will decide to shift gears from an anti-terrorist operation to total war, which he warned of as late as Feb. 14. Despite the warning however, we don’t expect such a bold move from Poroshenko under the current scenario, which would throw the economy upside down and threaten Ukraine’s lifeline of foreign aid. We view an attempt to seize the key port city of Mariupol, located on the front line, as a possible trigger for declaration of war, though even that might not be enough to do it.