Ukraine-Russia war will conclude with Crimea’s liberation, Turchynov says

Ukraine’s war with Russia will only conclude with the liberation of all Ukrainian territory from Russian control, including the Crimean peninsula, Oleksandr Turhcynov, the newly appointed secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, told his first press briefing on Dec. 17.  He said martial law is still an option for the Ukrainian government should the need arise, but that’s not the case currently.

The Russian government may launch a full-scale continental war at any moment, Turchynov said. “The ceasefire regime being violated constantly by Russian terrorist groups can grow into a fierce conflict at any moment,” he said. “Russia can unload a full-scale continental war and that can happen at any time.”

The task of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine is to mobilize all the nation’s resources to build a powerful defense complex in order to be ready to thwart Ukraine’s aggressor and free its territory, he said, adding that defense spending can’t be reduced despite Ukraine’s economic trouble. He said several rounds of military drafts are planned to mobilize citizens for the war.

Zenon Zawada: Turchynov’s bold statement means that the current war between Ukraine and Russia will require the ouster of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has banked his entire political future on his ability to control Crimea. Given that Putin and his entourage won’t surrender their control of Crimea for as long as they’re in power, Turchynov shares the common view that Western economic sanctions will provoke a collapse of the Putin regime from within. Such a collapse is possible within the next three years, we believe. If the sanctions fail to rouse the Russian public, then they are already beginning to convince Russian oligarchs – many of whom are dependent on the West – on the need for regime change.

It’s for this very reason that Turchynov said a Russian-launched continental war is possible. Facing likely economic collapse further down the road, the Putin regime may decide to attempt to resolve its problems using military force, as it did in Ukraine when the Ukrainian people rejected the Customs Union during the EuroMaidan protest. Russia’s first goal in this war would be ousting the current Ukrainian government, occupying Ukrainian territory and installing its loyalists in power. However, the Putin regime has demonstrated – in forming alliances with Europe’s conservative and far-right forces – that it’s also preparing for a continental clash of civilizations, regardless of how far-fetched it might seem.

What’s most important to take away from Turchynov’s comments, which are clearly influenced by his own interaction with Western leaders, is that the current Ukrainian government is allying with the West with the ultimate goal of removing Putin from power and utterly remaking the Russian Federation government and society. Ukraine will serve as the key base and battleground for this project, which means the country will be rife with conflict and turmoil for the next few years. If the Ukrainian government collapses from economic pressure next year, we expect the Russians to waste no time in installing a loyal government.