Constitutional majority emerges in Ukraine parliament

Ukraine’s new parliament got to work on Nov. 27, electing its temporary presidium and new speaker, Volodymyr Groysman of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, who earned 359 out of 427 total votes. Parliament also cast a strong majority of 341 votes to nominate Arseniy Yatsenyuk of the People’s Front as prime minister, which was immediately approved by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Six parliamentary factions were formed based on the six parties elected. Two groups of MPs emerged who are independent of any political party.

Five pro-EU factions formed the coalition government, consisting of 302 out of the 427 votes, which is a majority large enough to amend the Ukrainian Constitution, as is being planned by the president. He said he expects more MPs to join the coalition. (Independent MPs or those belonging to groups will have to join a faction in order to join the coalition.) The Poroshenko Bloc consists of 146 MPs, the People’s Front has 83 MPs, the Opposition Bloc has 40 MPs, Self-Reliance has 32 MPs, the Radical Party has 22 MPs and the Fatherland party has 19 MPs.

Parliament will vote to approve the Cabinet of Ministers at its next session on Dec. 2, Groysman said. At least five foreigners will become ministers, Poroshenko Bloc MP Yuriy Lutsenko told reporters on Nov. 27. The president told parliament he would like to have a law approved allowing foreigners to serve in high government positions, or granting them Ukrainian citizenship in order to serve. In particular, he’d like to see a foreigner serve as head of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. The candidate would be a technocrat with no familial or other ties to “the Ukrainian political elite,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: The formation of the legislature didn’t excite the markets much, proving it to be an anti-climactic event after weeks of anticipation. Much of the session’s main events were anticipated for days, if not weeks in advance. The main event, the formation of a constitutional majority, is nothing to get excited over. The next three months of work will prove whether there are enough votes to implement the radical overhauls that both the Ukrainian public, and the global audience, are waiting for.

So far, the signs are not inspiring. A wedge has emerged in the critical alliance between the powerful oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and President Poroshenko, as Kolomoisky’s parliamentary representatives didn’t vote in favor of the coalition leadership (Groysman and Yatsenyuk).  The coalition agreement that was initialed on Nov. 21 was promised to be signed on Nov. 27, which didn’t happen. The agreement itself is vague without a plan of action for the first few months, let alone a strategy for the country’s development in the next five years.

The proposal of outsourcing a handful of Cabinet positions to foreigners has the potential for failure, in our view, particularly considering the old habits that remain among the new authorities. On their own and without a serious team, we see such foreigners being overwhelmed by the Byzantine nature of Ukrainian laws and policies. In turn, we don’t see Ukrainian officials responding to their genuine efforts. If the president is serious about Western involvement in reforms, then many teams of consultants should be brought in and given unusual authority. A legitimate proposal would be to outsource the administration of entire state bodies, in our view.

Poroshenko’s proposal of a foreigner leading the anti-corruption bureau is particularly cynical, considering he himself has been responsible for nominating relatives and business associates to key posts. It’s comical to expect a single Westerner, or even a small team, being able to effectively weed out fraud in Ukraine’s labyrinthine corruption maze. That job is something a dedicated team of mostly Ukrainian nationals – familiar with the sophistication and nuances of local corruption – is capable of doing.