Ukraine’s new parliament may elect speaker, nominate PM today

The first session of the eighth convocation of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine is convening today, as the elected MPs took their oaths this morning. Coalition MPs could also elect the parliament’s leadership and nominate the current Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to remain in his post, said MP Volodymyr Groysman of the Poroshenko Bloc, as reported by the Interfax-Ukrayina news agency. Groysman himself is widely expected to become the next speaker. Meanwhile, the full Cabinet of Ministers will be ready for approval at the Dec. 2. session, said on Nov. 27 Yuriy Lutsenko, a Poroshenko Bloc MP and adviser to the president.

Borys Filatov, an elected MP and outspoken deputy head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration, said on his Facebook page on Nov. 26 that he is leaving the Poroshenko Bloc. He said the parliamentary faction denied him admission to its meeting that day, informing him that he wasn’t welcome. The same day, Filatov’s colleague, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration Head Svyatoslav Oliynyk, reported he was questioned by prosecutors in relation to five criminal cases, including a Facebook post. The statement was being investigated as a threat to a law enforcement officer, he reported on his Facebook page on Nov. 26. Oliynyk accused the current government of creating “a system of total state theft” in which its officials “quietly steal everything they can.”

Zenon Zawada: We expect no surprises in the parliamentary agenda today. It’s widely accepted that PM Yatsenyuk will remain and Groysman will become speaker. Given their record of success and relative youth, we expect them to manage the rivalries surrounding them, to a large extent, and pursue a reform agenda. Unfortunately, they will be surrounded by politicians representing cutthroat business clans that are engaged in intense competition with one another. These clans are already putting their interests about those of the nation.

Therefore, no matter how nimble and committed the young reformers and activists of the new parliament may be (though we view Yatsenyuk and Groysman more as mediators between the clans than reformers), we expect a ruthless, jungle-like atmosphere in the new parliament. The reform agenda that is critical to the survival of the Ukrainian state may be eaten alive amid the competition for assets and access to money streams. We advise investors to brace for a very turbulent year in politics, which we believe won’t bring the tectonic changes that Ukraine needs, given the competition for assets and resources already apparent.

As for Filatov and Oliynyk, they are close political allies to Igor Kolomoisky, one of Ukraine’s richest businessmen and the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which borders war-torn Donbas. Their trouble with the state authorities indicates a significant rupture in the alliance between Kolomoisky and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, which is a very negative development since it formed the backbone of the Ukrainian government’s military defense against Russian aggression this year. An escalation in this rivalry is an ominous sign for the prospects for the current government and Ukrainian statehood.