Donbas economic blockade grounds for military invasion, Lavrov says

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the Ukrainian government on Nov. 19 of laying the grounds for a military invasion with its recently introduced economic blockade of the occupied territories of the Donbas region. “There is the notion that what’s behind this decree is not only and not so much an attempt to economically and socially strangle this region, but to prepare the grounds for the latest military invasion and the latest attempt to resolve this problem with force,” Lavrov said, as reported by the TASS news agency. He referred to the president’s decree of Nov. 15 that will halt the operation of government offices and state enterprises in the occupied territories, as well as ceasing social payments such as pensions.

 

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier offered mixed messages to journalists on Nov. 18 regarding the prospects for resolving the Donbas war. “There are no grounds for optimism in the current situation,” he said at a press conference after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, as reported by the Agence France-Presse (AFP). He warned of a “dangerous situation developing” in Ukraine, which he visited earlier in the day.

 

At the same time, Steinmeier said the main objective of diplomats is to separate the warring sides, “and we can say that we are quite close to resolving this issue,” as reported by the Interfax news agency. He said a document is being prepared to be signed by military leaders in the conflict in which they agree to remove heavy artillery from the war zone.

 

Before the meeting with Steinmeier, Lavrov said his government hoped that “the point of no return” has not yet been crossed in Russia-Europe relations, as reported by AFP. Later that day, he called for “a renewal of the Minsk process,” a reference to the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire protocols, which he dubbed “the single thing” supported by all sides. From their end, Ukrainian government officials said on Nov. 18 they won’t return to the Minsk talks in the trilateral format, instead calling for a Geneva format that includes diplomats from Russia, the EU and the U.S. As his response, Lavrov criticized the Ukrainian government for wanting to exclude the separatist leaders from the talks. He dismissed the proposal for Geneva format negotiations as “a traversed phase.”

 

A “very serious build-up” of troops, artillery and air defense in occurring within Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border, said on Nov. 18 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, as reported by AFP. Since Nov. 15, the Russian Armed Forces have transferred more than 100 units of military hardware onto Ukrainian territory, reported on Nov. 18 Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Yevhen Perebiynis, as reported by the Interfax-Ukrayina news agency.

 

Russian forces are also setting up training camps for the separatists, reported the same day Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine. The so-called humanitarian convoys are transferring the equipment for the camps, he said. Armed fighting on Nov. 17 and the morning of Nov. 18 resulted in six deaths and nine injuries among Ukrainian soldiers, reported the National Security and Defense Council.

 

Zenon Zawada: Lavrov refers to the Ukrainian government as having laid the grounds for its own Armed Forces to “invade” Donbas (an absurd assertion, in and of itself), but the remark should be considered a veiled threat of a Russian military invasion. Therefore, the Russian government views the economic blockade – an entirely justified measure, in our view – as an escalation in the conflict and a threat to its influence in the Donbas region. That makes sense because it has no intention to offer any consistent aid to Donbas residents, who will grow weary of the occupation.

 

Top ranking Western and Ukrainian officials were bracing for a renewed Russian offensive this weekend, which didn’t happen. Yet Ukraine’s leadership remains on high alert. Steinmeier’s comments reveal that the Western leadership is also bracing itself for the latest gambit of the unpredictable Russian President Putin, while at the same time pursuing diplomacy. A theory exists that Putin is massing his arms and hardware to improve his negotiating stance, which we view as possible, but the actual use of these weapons is just as likely.

 

The Russian leadership’s ongoing support for the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire indicates that it has gained from its failure, particularly in enhancing its military presence in the region. The Ukrainian side has taken the correct approach in abandoning them and calling for new talks in the Geneva format. However, we view the only two levers that can be used to restrain the Russians are economic sanctions and a bolstered Ukrainian army. Given news reports that these levers are being prepared for use, the possible Russian-backed military advance will face a formidable response.