Ukraine coalition agreement nearing completion, elected MPs say

The reforms portion of the agreement between the five parties that are forming the coalition government is ready, according to a Nov. 17 statement released by the Self-Reliance party. What remains to be drafted is its preamble and rules portion, said Oksana Syroyid, an elected Self-Reliance MP. The party’s leaders will be ready to sign the document once the parliamentary factions are formed, she said. The agreement was drafted by representatives of all five parties and approved by consensus, she said.

 

The coalition agreement will be completed and signed this week, Pavlo Rozenko, an elected MP from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, told a political television program on Nov. 17. He said it’s premature to discuss the candidates to be nominated for Cabinet posts. “I am convinced that a part of the candidates, having learned what reforms and what responsibility they will have to take upon themselves, can decline their proposed positions,” he said.

 

The Ukrainian government’s main task at the moment is to form the coalition government and for parliament to convene by Nov. 25, said on Nov. 17 Valeriia Gontareva, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine. By then, the IMF mission to Ukraine will complete its work and may reach a decision on extending Ukraine its next loan tranches before the new year, she said. “Only in that case will we receive the next IMF tranches, which we are depending on,” she said. Combining the third and fourth tranches will give Ukraine USD 2.8 bln, “but I think we will talk about an even larger sum,” she said. The funds are needed to replenish Ukraine’s international reserves, which are currently worth USD 12.5 bln, she said.

 

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk published on Nov. 14 his recommendations for Cabinet of Ministers posts, which include keeping his close allies Arsen Avakov as interior minister and Pavlo Petrenko as justice minister. He suggested numerous candidates from the Poroshenko Bloc, including Volodymyr Groysman as deputy prime minister for regional development and Leonid Kozachenko as agriculture minister. Afterwards, at least three of his proposed candidates said they weren’t consulted as to whether they were interested.

 

The same day, the Poroshenko Bloc published a draft of the coalition agreement. Among the reforms proposals are reducing the number of taxes to nine from 21, setting domestic prices for natural gas and electricity for both households and heat producers, and reducing the minimum payroll tax to 18 percent from 32 percent.

 

Zenon Zawada: The coalition agreement was projected to have been completed and initialed on Nov. 14, yet that has yet to happen. The players have continued to insist that the lucrative positions will be determined only after it’s completed and signed, which is a claim we are doubtful of. Even if they’re not part of the formal agreement, the assigned ministries will be agreed upon on a de facto basis.

 

That’s what we believe is holding up the coalition agreement. We believe Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are wrestling to secure for themselves key government posts, such as the interior and energy ministries. We don’t believe the coalition agreement will be signed until the key government posts are divvied up by the main players. Therefore, we view it entirely possible that the coalition talks will drag into next week, which we would view negatively. That’s especially the case considering that the arrival of billions of dollars in loans by the new year is at stake.

 

It’s also already apparent that despite claims of the need to fulfill it absolutely, the agreement will only be partly implemented. A good example is the inclusion of the goal of NATO membership in the agreement, which Poroshenko himself said on Nov. 17 that Ukraine is not ready for. So the document contains numerous pieces of “ear candy.”

 

What will make the coalition government a success or failure is whether enough reforms are implemented to make the Ukrainian state viable in defending the population and giving it the ability to develop economically, despite conditions of Russian aggression.