Ukraine maintains defensive military strategy, stresses political solutions

The Ukrainian government won’t wage a war to recover the districts of the Donbas region occupied by Russian-separatist forces, said on Nov. 13 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. “Such a military operation would affect the civilian population, our fellow Ukrainian citizens,” he told a German newspaper, as reported by Deutsche Welle. The Ukrainian government plans to uphold the cease-fire regime and continue to search for political resolutions to the conflict. Ukrainian forces will militarily repel Russian-separatist forces should they attempt a military offensive, he said.

Zenon Zawada: The Ukrainian strategy in dealing with Russian aggression is based on a defensive, reactive position. The reasoning is it will allow Ukrainian Armed Forces to build their strength, given they’re not capable of waging a full scale war with Russia currently.

Although many argue that time is not on Russia’s side, given the economic pressure being applied, we believe the Ukrainian government will end up even weaker over time. Dwindling gross reserves are one example that time is not on Ukraine’s side. A hollow fight against corruption is another (which will erode Western support).

With the Ukrainian government not taking steps to enhance its ability to win this war, we view Western economic pressure to be the single influential force restraining Russian military aggression in Ukraine. If the Russian government concludes that it can withstand this pressure, we expect it to expand its military invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks or months.