18 April 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered aggressive remarks against the Ukrainian state in which he questioned its right to exist at all during a live televised question-and-answer broadcast on April 17. “If you look at the words of the leaders of the White Movement, regardless of their conflict with the Bolsheviks, they never would have even allowed the notion of a possible division of Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “They always believed that it was part of a single space, a single people. They were absolutely correct. But it just so happened that we live in different states today. And the politics of pulling apart and weakening one and the other component of a common people is continuing. There are enough forces in the world that fear our power. ‘Our greatness,’ as one of our statesmen said, which is why they’re trying to divide us.”
Putin also used the term “Novorossiya” (New Russia) to describe the eight Russian-speaking southeastern oblasts that have traditionally supported close Russian ties during Ukrainian indpendence. They “were not part of Ukraine during the czarist times,” he said. “That’s all territory that was transferred in the 1920s by the Soviet government. Why they did that God only knows,” he said.
Putin also referred to his “right” to use militaryforce in Ukraine as granted by the Federation Council, which is the upper house of the Russian parliament. “I really hope that I do not have to exercise this right and that we are able to solve all today’s pressing issues via political and diplomatic means,” Putin said.
Zenon Zawada: Putin’s April 17 comments make abundantly clear that he plans to take military action to ensure, at minimum, some autonomous status for the eight Russian-speaking oblasts of southeastern Ukraine. But his remarks indicate that he could go as far as annexing not only these oblasts, but all of Ukraine. What remains to be determined is Putin’s strategy for doing all this, which is why we’re seeing different political declarations from the Russian-backed Ukrainian fighters.
Some of them have declared independence for their respective oblast, others have called for annexation into Russia while others are merely calling for a federal Ukrainian government giving their region greater autonomy. Kremlin operatives will use whatever political ideals or forces to achieve what’s paramount to them, which is the split of the Ukrainian state.
Putin’s remarks are practically a declaration of war against Ukraine, making a farce of the Geneva agreement that was being negotiating as he spoke. We expect more aggressive actions this weekend, and we have no doubt the Russian government will use the May 9 Victory Day holiday as an opportunity to attempt to mobilize Ukraine’s Russophile population into some expression of support for local autonomy or separatism.