Russia could still invade Ukrainian mainland, Ukraine security official says

The Russian Federation hasn’t abandoned its Russian Spring operation to invade Ukraine’s mainland territory and is maintaining its army of nearly 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Andriy Parubiy said on March 24, as reported by the UNIAN news agency. It’s ready to invade Ukrainian territory regardless of Russian statements to the contrary, Parubiy said. The Russian government is continuing its attempts to destabilize southeastern Ukrainian oblasts, he said. Ukrainian law enforcement authorities have arrested saboteurs on a daily basis, most recently in Odesa, where they were armed with automatic rifles and pistols. The morning of March 24, an attack occurred on a rifle depot in the Odesa Oblast, he said.

 

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov assured Acting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia during a March 25 meeting that the Russian government has no intention of using military force in the southeastern regions of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported. Both sides agreed to not allow further escalation of the conflict in Crimea and southeastern Ukrainian oblasts, which could lead to deaths.

 

The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine ordered its Defense Ministry on March 24 to relocate military subunits from the Crimean peninsula, reported the Interfax-Ukrayina news agency. Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov signed a decree ordering the relocation that day. He told the Council the reason behind their long presence in Crimea without armed resistance was to buy time for the armed forces on the mainland. “Disregarding the enormous losses, Ukrainian armies in Crimea fulfilled their obligation,” he said. “Above all, they gave the opportunity and time to the armed forces to ensure defense preparations, bring the army into full combat preparedness and began partial mobilization. Today, the Ukrainian army is ready to professionally and worthily defend Ukrainian land.”

 

The families of Ukrainian soldiers are being allowed to leave Crimea only if they have notarized permission as if they were departing to live abroad, or if they’re accompanied by their servicemen husbands, reported on March 24 Serhiy Sobolev, the acting parliamentary chair of the pro-EU Fatherland parliamentary faction. The families are being targeted by looters, he said.

 

Ukrainian authorities in the Kherson Oblast decided on March 24 to fortify the Ukrainian border with Crimea, reported the Kherson Oblast State Administration on March 24, which is the Presidential Administration’s representative organ in the region. They are establishing border posts for automobiles, observation towers and a 20-kilometer trench. The State Border Service had increased its monitoring of the same border on March 22 out of concern of provocations being launched by Russian special forces.

 

Russian soldiers continued to seize Ukrainian ships and detain their crews on March 24. The crew of one Ukrainian ship, the Cherkasy minesweeper, succeeded in fending off a Russian invasion. Yet it has failed twice to escape the Donuzlav Bay that has been blocked by the Russian navy. Another ship, the Henichesk, fell captive to a takeover by Russian special force, who applied harsh physical force against those resisting and the ship’s captain, reported the Ukrayinska Pravda news site, citing witnesses. Many crew members were beaten before being released, except for the ship’s captain.

 

Between 60 and 80 Ukrainian soldiers were detained at the Feodosiya Ukrainian military base by Russian forces and have been threatened with criminal charges, reported the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on March 24. Some of them were injured in the Russian takeover of the military base. “Our sources deny information that the Ukrainian naval infantry first fired, which prompted an assault of the Feodosiya army units by the Russian Federation special forces,” reported the Defense Ministry.

 

The whereabouts of the detained commander of the Ukrainian aviation base in Belbek, Yuliy Mamchur, has yet to be confirmed. Although reports surfaced on March 23 that he was released, his wife told a television talk show on March 24 that he remains detained by Russian soldiers. He last spoke to her on March 23, telling her he had been detained and transported to Sevastopol after Russian forces captured the base.

 

About 50 percent of the personnel of the Ukrainian military in Sevastopol joined the Russian forces, reported on March 24 Oleksandr Rozmaznin, the deputy head of the main command center of the Defense Ministry, as reported by the Ukrainian News agency. Three Ukrainian ships blocked in the Donuzlav Bay remain loyal to Ukraine, as well as several other bases he declined to reveal. The majority of the crew of the Olshanskiy landing ship joined the Russian forces by the morning of March 24, reported the Ukrayinska Pravda news site, resulting in a Russian assault on the remaining crew of 20 officers and mechanics that evening that led to the ship’s capture.

 

Ukrainian hostages released on March 20, one of whom was held captive for nearly two weeks, reported enduring torture from Russian invaders, including being beaten by cables while naked, being shot in their joints and having part of an ear sliced off. They reported brutal beatings, extensive questionings, being forced to sing the Soviet and Russian anthems, being threatened with shootings and being detained in spartan conditions. The hostages had no relation to the Ukrainian military or paramilitary forces, despite undergoing brutal questioning about them, the Ukrayinska Pravda news site reported, citing blogs that reported their testimonies. One of the hostages had his car stolen.

 

The Crimean annexation has produced more than 1,100 refugees, while an additional 2,000 have expressed their intention to leave, reported Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on March 24. In addition to those, local governments are preparing residences for additional 3,000 refugees, the report said.

 

Electrical energy was restored to Crimean consumers the morning of March 24 after utility company DTEK reported technical problems on the prior day that cut electricity from two-thirds of the peninsula’s population.

 

Zenon Zawada: Turchynov’s explanation of the government’s military actions seems like an excuse rather than a brilliant strategy of keeping the Russians distracted in Crimea while the army was mobilized in the mainland. If the interim government truly had that strategy, it would have informed its military commanders in Crimea of its plans. Instead, these commanders repeatedly made statements in the press stating they didn’t have instructions on how to proceed, which was an embarrassment for the interim government. One of those commanders who complained of not receiving instructions, Col. Mamchur, is currently being held by Russian forces and is likely being subjected to beatings.

 

The interim government is the target of a lot of criticism for its handling of the Crimean annexation, but we believe it’s done an acceptable job. If that was truly his strategy, then Turchynov’s logic makes sense of keeping the Ukrainian soldiers stationed in Crimea as a decoy for the Russians while the army was mobilized in the Ukrainian mainland. Yet the soldiers should have been informed of such a strategy. Instead they issued numerous statements in the mass media complaining they didn’t have clear instructions from Kyiv, which damaged the image of the interim government.

 

Lavrov’s assurances that the Russian government has no intention to use force in Ukraine are not backed by real gestures, such as withdrawing soldiers and artillery from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government is reporting an ongoing influx of saboteurs and political tourists. Therefore, Ukrainian citizens remain on alert for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which can happen as soon as tomorrow or during the next several months. Unfortunately, that looming danger undermines the nation’s stability in all spheres.