EU won’t apply sanctions to Ukraine until crisis worsens

The European Union (EU) won’t apply sanctions to Ukrainian leaders unless the situation worsens, said on Feb. 10 Lithuanian Foreign Affairs Minister Linas Linkevicius after a meeting of the EU Council. “We agreed that the EU reaction will in this case worsen the situation,” he said, as reported by the Interfax-Ukrayina news agency. “That means that we don’t plan on doing something now, but the EU will act swiftly.”

Western institutions will offer the Ukrainian government financial aid if it will undertake major economic reforms, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on Feb. 10. “There are enormous resources in the IMF, European Investment Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Redevelopment and macroeconomic support from the European Commission for Ukraine,” he said, as reported by m.onet.pl. “But Ukraine is supposed to begin reforms. There won’t be any money for an unreformed Ukrainian economy.”

Zenon Zawada: We have a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem here. The “liberal” wing of the ruling Party of Regions has yet to abandon its ranks and form a new parliamentary majority with the opposition. Part of the reason could be that it doesn’t view the EU threats seriously. As a recent example, Party of Regions MP Olena Bondarenko was able to travel to the U.S. despite a Voice of America report stating that she had her visa revoked. It’s still not known who in the Ukrainian leadership has been targeted by the U.S.’ announced travel sanctions.

We believe it’s very possible that the Party of Regions parliamentary faction would begin to crumble if the EU began to target just a handful of its MPs. The EU leadership seems to be hesitating from such actions out of concern it will merely further isolate the Party of Regions and back its members into a corner. The West is bound to lose the battle for Ukraine with such a strategy as President Viktor Yanukovych already demonstrated his willingness to use threats and blackmail to keep his MPs in line.

As another example, Party of Regions MP and mega-millionaire Serhiy Tihipko has been reportedly by opposition MPs to have formed a group of at least 30 MPs willing to abandon the parliamentary majority. Yet yesterday he insisted he remains loyal to the Party of Regions. So he’s clearly on the fence and so far sees more advantage with the status quo. The West has to be willing to apply similar pressure as Yanukovych to convince the members of the authoritarian government, particularly the majority MPs, that they have more to lose by continuing to support it.