Ukraine president expected to sign economic agreements in Moscow today

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has traveled to Moscow today as part of a working visit to attend the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission. Yanukovych is negotiating USD 15 bln in loans, as well as lower natural gas prices, reported the Bloomberg news service on Dec. 16, citing two anonymous sources. The first tranche of USD 5 billion could arrive this month. Russian Presidential Aide Andrei Belousov didn’t rule out the Russian government offering loans.

Yanukovych is planning to sign mostly bilateral economic agreements, said Oleksandr Yefremov, the parliamentary faction chair of Ukraine’s Party of Regions. As a result, trade obstacles will be removed and cooperation will be renewed, he said. Gas prices “will be decided directly within the framework of negotiations and signing of the given documents,” he said. Gas prices have the potential to be reduced by a minimum of 25 percent, said Viktor Medvedchuk, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s close ally in Ukraine who has been advising the government in recent weeks, as reported by Bloomberg. There’s a “high likelihood” they will sign a gas agreement, said Energy Minister Eduard Stavytskiy.

Zenon Zawada: Central Kyiv remains occupied by the opposition, including Independence Square (Maidan) and the Kyiv City Council building, which makes Putin reluctant to sign any important agreement with Yanukovych, given the uncertainty of his future in office.

If these reported claims are true and loan and gas agreements are to be reached, then in our view, they would require the signing of a document that commits to Ukraine – to some degree – to joining the Eurasian Union. We doubt such a document will be signed today (previously mentioned by Prime Minister Mykola Azarov as a “strategic partnership agreement”). If it is signed, then Yanukovych will gain the full backing of Putin to clear central Kyiv using brute force in the coming days to liquidate the EuroMaidan and reinforce his authoritarian rule.