Ukraine govt uses force against protesters, drawing Western condemnation

The Ukrainian government authorized police to physically force protestors from the perimeter of Independence Square (maidan), and from the Kyiv City Council building, the early morning of December 11. No one in the government claimed responsibility for the decision, which was made despite the presence in Kyiv of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland and EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Minister Catherine Ashton, who met with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych for 3.5 hours that day and advised against the use of force. Several dozen protesters and police officers were injured, yet the opposition maintained control of its territories, forcing back officers and their buses. Arseniy Yatsenyuk, leader of the opposition Fatherland party, said the police assault was a “spit in the face” to the Western world and Ukraine’s citizens, vowing Yanukovych’s removal from office.

On Dec. 11, Western leaders condemned Yanukovych’s decision, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who voiced his support for the Ukrainian people. Ashton met again with Yanukovych that day, getting his assurance that he will release arrested protesters. That day, four protesters were released, some with fines and house arrest. He called a roundtable meeting with opposition leaders today, after a televised roundtable with Ukraine’s three former presidents that was largely dismissed as ineffective by the public. Opposition leaders declined to meet until police forces were moved beyond the city limits. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Canadian governments reported they are considering sanctions against the Yanukovych administration.

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov announced on Dec. 11 a new price tag for signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement: EUR 20 bln. His estimate comes after First Vice Prime Minister Serhiy Arzubov suggested EUR 10 bln and President Viktor Yanukovych requested EUR 160 bln over eight years during the talks in Vilnius. In response, EU European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said the Ukrainian government’s new request won’t be considered. “The material prosperity and the future of Ukraine aren’t supposed to become the subjects of a trade, in which victory is gained by the one who proposes the highest price,” he said, as quoted by the dpa news agency.

Ukraine’s oligarchs have lent their support to the Euro-Maidan protests, Bloomberg Businessweek reported on Dec. 11. Among them, industrial magnate Victor Pinchuk has supported his mass media outlets in covering the protests, as well as natural gas trader Dmytro Firtash, who controls the largest television network, Inter. Confectionary giant Petro Poroshenko has openly supported the Euro-Maidan, and his television network 5 Kanal has been actively covering the events. “Though Yanukovych helped boost their fortunes, the oligarchs are now nervous as their businesses face credit-ratings downgrades and the potential loss of export markets,” Bloomberg reported.

Zenon Zawada: Yanukovych is clearly laying the groundwork for a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin that is currently being prepared for the Dec. 17 meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission in Moscow. Clearing the Maidan of protestors is a prerequisite set by Putin for signing the deal. In doing so, Yanukovych demonstrated his indifference to Western opinion of his rule. Despite the Ukrainian government’s assurances to the contrary, we expect it will make similar forceful attempts to clear the Maidan leading up to the visit. Yet the more such attempts are made, the more supporters join the protests, as evidenced on Dec. 11. Notably, most of the police attacks of the last two weeks took place in the deep night, between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. (when the Kyiv subway is closed), which demonstrates that the government is concerned about the public’s reaction.

We expect hundreds of thousands of protesters this weekend to voice their opposition to Yanukovych’s plans for a strategic partnership agreement to join the Customs Union. If he signs this agreement, we expect a newly emboldened wave of protests and further destabilization of Ukraine’s political and economic situation. Opposition leaders such as Yatsenyuk pointed out this week that Customs Union membership will lead to the disintegration of the Ukrainian state as several regions won’t accept a reunion with Moscow.

Azarov’s EUR 20 bln proposal confirms just how out of touch the current Ukrainian government is from political realities. Its hostile behavior towards its own citizens, coupled with its obnoxious behavior towards Western diplomats, confirms its isolated status. Russia’s short-term help will only lead to problems next year, in our view. Meanwhile, we expect Ukraine’s oligarchs to gradually shift their support away from Yanukovych to an opposition candidate to replace him as president, either Yatsenyuk or Vitali Klitschko.