EU ready to renew Association preparation upon Ukraine’s request

The EU is ready to renew preparations for signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement as soon as the Ukrainian government demonstrates its readiness to renew its commitment to political association and economic integration, EU Enlargement Chair Stefan Fule wrote in an article published in the Dzerkalo Tyzhnia newspaper on November 22. The Ukrainian government’s decision is the result of pressure from the Russian Federation government, he wrote. “The doors to sign the Association Agreement remain open in the future, once the appropriate conditions will be created,” Fule said.

Kyiv has yet to officially inform Brussels on its decision to halt its process of preparing for the agreement, Fule told journalists on November 23. In addition, the EU “isn’t fully conceding its positions,” he said. “That’s why we aren’t declining signing and aren’t declining from Ukraine fulfilling the necessary criteria for signing in Vilnius,” he said.

The EU rejects the Ukrainian government’s proposal of holding trilateral negotiations “which isn’t a way out of the situation and doesn’t have a precedent,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius said on November 22, as cited by the UNIAN news agency. “The EU proposal of bilateral negotiations remains in force and we don’t see a role for third countries in this process,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: The only two apparent ways for the agreement to be signed is for Yanukovych to pardon imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which is highly unlikely, and for the EU to drop its requirement of arranging for her release. There is some indication the EU may concede on this issue. In his November 23 statement to journalists, Fule said of the Yanukovych administration’s handling of the Tymoshenko situation, “We are waiting for their report to resolve the problems of selective justice. Afterwards, everything is in the hands of the member-states. The discussion is ongoing.”

This statement hints that the EU could sign the agreement with merely an assurance of Tymoshenko’s release, a promise that would then be left for the EU member-states to evaluate in the ratification process. However, we see that likelihood as less than 50 percent given Germany’s tough stance on the Tymoshenko issue and the Cabinet resolution halting preparations.

Meanwhile, we are anticipating that Yanukovych will call a meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (whose members include the president and prime minister) that should generate the ultimate decision on the EU deal from the Ukrainian side.