Ukraine GDP declines 0.6% in 10M13, Azarov says

Ukraine’s GDP declined 0.6% yoy in 10M13, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov told a council of CIS government heads in St. Petersburg on November 20.

Alexander Paraschiy: After a 1.3% decline in GDP in 9M13, Azarov’s ten-month number implies October’s GDP growth was about +6.0%, which is hard to believe. Yet we believe it can be the true if the result was indeed driven by agricultural output, which showed 43% yoy growth in October (vs. -20% yoy a month ago). This factor looks to be a one-off result from a shift in the harvesting schedule from September (which was extremely rainy). At the same time, other core sectors like industry and construction reported continued declines, -4.9% yoy and -24.3% yoy respectively. Against this backdrop, we just confirm our GDP forecast for -0.8% in 2013.