Ukraine industry falls 4.9% in October

Ukraine’s industrial output fell 4.9% yoy in October (-5.2% yoy in 10M13), according to state statistics released on November 18. The biggest production declines occurred in chemicals (-18.9% yoy in October), machinery (-14.3% yoy) and metallurgy (-8.0% yoy). At the same time, utilities (+8.9% yoy) and mining (+0.9% yoy) kept growing.

Alexander Paraschiy: Industrial output declines continue to exceed our expectations. The downside factors are well-known: the slowing economies of Russia and other emerging markets, falling metal prices, and budget disputes in the U.S. However, the adverse effects of those factors are having a much stronger impact on Ukraine than we projected. Against this backdrop, we have to revise our 2013 industry forecast down to -5.2% yoy from -4.5% yoy, having observed these trends deepening at the start of November.