Ukraine ruling party places hurdles to resolving Tymoshenko dilemma

Party of Regions Parliamentary Faction Chair Oleksandr Yefremov told a November 5 press briefing that he doesn’t see any prospects of approving legislation on November 7 that arranges for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The parliamentary majority won’t support the legislation endorsed by the EU, known as the Labunska bill, and will form a working group to review the submitted bills, he said, as reported by the Ukrayinska Pravda news site. “Guaranteeing something stable is impossible with this parliament and the changes in the opposition’s mood,” Yefremov said. The prior day, Parliamentary Chair Volodymyr Rybak of the Party of Regions said that parliament would review on November 7 several bills to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release.

Tymoshenko faces criminal complaints in several Western nations, including the U.S. and Switzerland, for her alleged money laundering activity in the 1990s that allegedly cost the state at least USD 500 million, Yefremov told the November 5 briefing, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. The complaints were filed this week by Ukraine’s Revenue and Fees Ministry, which is being represented by the Lawrence Graham global law firm. “In any state the question emerges: if there are such people, who as a result of their political activity and sitting in certain posts in the state service embezzled such enormous costs beyond our state’s borders, then are they responsible to the state or no? Any European state would say they’re responsible,” Yefremov said.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara said on November 5 that he expects to receive a final report on November 14 on the status of the Association Agreement from the EU diplomatic mission led by former European Parliament President Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. He added that he expects the EU member-states will ratify the agreement in the first half of 2014, according to a Foreign Affairs Ministry statement. The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to decide on whether to pursue the Association Agreement with Ukraine on November 18. The agreement is scheduled to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29.

Zenon Zawada: These three developments yesterday demonstrate the recklessness with which the administration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the ruling Party of Regions are behaving in regards to the Association Agreement. We view Kozhara’s request to receive a final decision from the Cox-Kwasniewski mission on November 14, four days before the crucial vote, as the government testing to see whether the EU is bluffing on Tymoshenko’s release. Therefore, the Yanukovych administration is foolishly continuing to ignore ample evidence that the EU is not bluffing, and that the agreement hinges on her release. So we believe once the negative verdict is delivered by Cox and Kwasniewski on November 14, the Yanukovych administration will then spring into some bizarre, last-minute action to satisfy the EU by the November 18 vote. We don’t even rule out that the administration could be reckless enough to attempt to jump into a train that has already gone, trying to throw the EU a bone between November 18 and 28.

Yefremov’s claim that no legislation on Tymoshenko’s status will be voted on this week is yet another bluff, yet it’s entirely realistic judging from the Party of Regions’ behavior. It’s also quite reckless, leaving only one week before the crucial November 18 vote to approve legislation if his warning proves true. His attempt to shift blame to the opposition is wholly inappropriate. The EU and the opposition have made significant concessions to the Yanukovych administration, whose turn it is to respond with its own concessions. Meanwhile, the government’s new lawsuits against Tymoshenko, for alleged money laundering nearly two decades ago are even more ridiculous, revealing that the thinking inside the Yanukovych administration leadership is out of touch with the mainstream. Undoubtedly, these latest events dampen our optimism. But they erase doubt that the burden of failure will lie with the Yanukovych administration.