EU could sign Ukraine Association Agreement next year, Sikorski says

The EU government may decide to sign the Association Agreement with its Ukrainian counterpart in 2014, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on October 30, as reported by the Polish Press Agency. The EU was already planning to initialize its Association Agreements with Georgia and Moldova at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29, he said. Since the EU has already initialized its agreement with Ukraine, all three Association Agreements can be signed next year, he said. The EU and Ukrainian governments were scheduled to sign their agreement in Vilnius on November 28-29.

The key condition that the administration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych arrange for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko “remains a question mark,” Sikorski said. “I would ask the Ukrainian government not to play against time and do what needs to be done.” He said Yanukovych has nothing to mix up or combine, just fulfill what needs to be done in cooperation with the diplomatic mission led by former European President Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski.

Zenon Zawada: Sikorski’s statement is a bad omen since he’s never mentioned this possibility before. While he has always been among the most reserved EU officials in expressing hopes for the Association Agreement with Ukraine, this latest statement is a clear attempt to create wider diplomatic space for maneuvering in case Yanukovych does not pardon Tymoshenko. We think a pardon unlikely and we’re starting to see EU officials recognize that low likelihood as well. A true breakthrough in the current deadlock will have to be reached in the next three weeks.

We have been stressing the need for signing the Association Agreement in November for numerous reasons. Postponing it for another year is a risky proposal, considering that the EU will have a new parliament in 2014 with a new agenda and new priorities. That could lead to a lot of negotiation points between the EU and Ukraine having to be reset and the EU leadership will be reluctant to repeat this tiresome negotiating process. Plus, the Ukrainian presidential campaign will be in full swing in 2014. While there’s an argument to be made for an electoral boost Yanukovych would gain from signing the agreement then, he would face the greater risk of a newly released Tymoshenko stirring the public against his re-election, even from a distant Germany hospital. Releasing her now would make her presence less of a novelty by the time elections roll around.