Ukraine president to meet with Putin before EU Association decision

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Minsk on October 24-25 at a summit of the member-states of the Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Community, both of which involve Ukraine as a non-member observer. Putin will offer Yanukovych his final proposals for joining the Customs Union, including lower prices for natural gas and a large loan by the year’s end, reported on October 23 Mustafa Nayem for the Ukrayinska Pravda website, citing anonymous high-placed sources in Moscow. “If similar levers had been used earlier to compel Ukraine to join the Customs Union, then now they will be the price for Yanukovych to decline signing the Association Agreement with the EU,” he reported.

Zenon Zawada: Based on the axiom that anything is possible in Ukrainian politics, we can’t rule out the possibility that Yanukovych will abandon the EU Association Agreement in favor of cheaper gas from Russia, particularly if it’s a particularly generous offer. However, such a move would undermine the long-term goals of the Ukrainian state and its oligarchy and therefore we find it unlikely to occur. Other news reports said the two leaders will be discussing the conditions of Russian-Ukrainian relations after the agreement is signed. But we certainly expect Putin to make a last-minute stab at luring Yanukovych, exploiting the Tymoshenko conflict to convince him that EU Association is not worth all the headaches of democracy and rule of law, which Yanukovych doesn’t intend on pursuing anyway.