Dutch, Brits, Swedes to reject Ukraine pact without Tymoshenko’s release

The governments of the Netherlands, Great Britain and Sweden won’t vote in favor of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement if Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych doesn’t arrange for the release of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on October 21, following a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg.

“I call upon the Ukrainian government to not underestimate the difficulty of approving decisions in the EU: they require time,” said Sikorski, as reported by the Ukrayinska Pravda website. “There’s little time left, yet Ukraine has done so much positive that it would be a tragedy if Ukraine falls apart 100 meters short of the finish line of its marathon.” The EU Foreign Affairs Council will vote on November 18 on the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, which is scheduled to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29.

Ukraine’s Party of Regions Parliamentary Faction Chair Oleksandr Yefremov said on October 21 that the Ukrainian government would remove all remaining hurdles to the Association Agreement if the EU were to pay USD 12 bln for the nation’s overpayment for natural gas during the last three years. “Pay us for it, and there aren’t any issues and we’ll immediately resolve all issues in the state,” he said, as reported by the LigaBiznesInform news wire.

Ukraine will gain EUR 600 mln to help with adaption to the requirements of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, the head of the economic and trade department of the EU Representative to Ukraine said at an October 21 roundtable discussion in Kyiv. “These costs are enough to lift Ukrainian business onto its legs,” he said. “Ukraine was already given EUR 120 mln, which haven’t been used up as of yet.” The agreement will take effect in early April, while Ukrainian producers will be able to freely trade in the EU by June, he said.

Zenon Zawada: Sikorski’s statement eliminates any doubt for the first time that the Association Agreement won’t be signed without the arrangement of Tymoshenko’s release. That confirmation significantly limits the options left to the Yanukovych administration.

The EU is demanding a pardon for Tymoshenko, which we find unlikely. From his end, Yanukovych repeated yesterday that legislation is being prepared to arrange for her medical treatment abroad, which EU leaders said is inadequate without her freedom and her ability to return to Ukrainian political life.

Whatever compromise that will emerge will have to be very nuanced and must involve concessions and face-saving measures from all the parties involved. The final compromise will likely look like some contorted version of the “partial pardon” proposal offered by European MP Marek Siwiec, which satisfies Yanukovych by denying Tymoshenko a return to politics before the presidential election of 2015.

Yefremov’s statement is helpful in revealing the thinking of the Yanukovych administration, which we are confident is negotiating for significant financial aid in exchange for Tymoshenko’s release. The Ukrainian economy is in serious trouble and the government needs the EU to aid in its survival.