Ukraine industry falls 5.6% in September

Industrial output in Ukraine declined 5.6% yoy in September, resulting in a 5.2% yoy drop in 9M13, according to state statistics released on October 17. Chemicals (-19.7% yoy), machinery (-16.2% yoy) and metallurgy (-5.2% yoy) led the declines in September. At the same time, utilities (+3.6% yoy) and mining (+1.4% yoy) demonstrated growth.

Alexander Paraschiy: Our estimates for industry again proved too much optimistic, and the situation does not look as though it will improve, particularly when investment demand in Russia will remain subdued and resource markets are sluggish. The two-week US government shutdown is also expected to have an adverse effect on the global economy over the upcoming months. Against this backdrop, we again are lowering our industrial output estimate to -4.0% yoy (from -3.5% yoy) for 2013, still making assumption that the sliding rates will cool soon.