Tymoshenko rejects solution to conflict that doesn’t involve pardon

The EU will reach its final decision on whether to sign the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on November 18, the Ukrainian Week reported on October 15, citing Dirk Schubel, the head of the Eastern Partnership division and European External Action Service. The decision has been postponed from the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on October 21, he said. The EU Foreign Affairs Council will reject the Association Agreement if the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko isn’t arranged by then, he said.

The diplomatic mission to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release led by former European Parliament President Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski has been extended to November 13-14, European Parliament President Martin Schulz told a Brussels press conference on October 15. The decision was reached at a conference of EU presidents at the request of Cox and Kwasniewski, he said. “The mission has been very successful,” Schulz said. “There still is a chance of reaching an arrangement. If there wasn’t a chance, we wouldn’t be extending the mission.”

All the possible scenarios for Tymoshenko’s release have been discussed and “we’re close to finding a realistic scenario that will be acceptable to the three sides,” Kwasniewski told reporters on October 15, referring to Tymoshenko, the EU and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Among the proposals is that Yanukovych partially pardon Tymoshenko, reducing her prison term to two years from seven, said Kwasniewski, as reported by Voice of America. “It seems that’s the most realistic approach and the deadlines allow for it to be fulfilled,” he said. “There’s little time left. 42 days are left until the Vilnius summit.” Cox and Kwasniewski submitted a letter to Yanukovych on October 15 asking for him to pardon Tymoshenko “taking into account her medical treatment and humanitarian grounds.”

Fatherland Party Political Council Chair Arseniy Yatsenyuk told an October 15 press conference after meeting with Tymoshenko that she will agree to a release only if it involves a pardon or amnesty. Tymoshenko rejects the proposal floated this week by Party of Regions Parliamentary Faction Chair Oleksandr Yefremov that legislation be approved by parliament to allow Tymoshenko to gain medical treatment in Germany under the condition that she return to incarceration. “Attempts to transfer Yulia Tymoshenko in handcuffs for a week of treatment in Germany, not releasing her, is unacceptable,” Yatsenyuk said, as reported by the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper. Her gaining medical treatment without canceling her conviction (with a pardon or amnesty) is a temporary solution and only means “a break in repressions,” which is why the proposal should be rejected, he said. 

Zenon Zawada: It’s a positive development that the Cox-Kwasniewski mission has been extended until the eve of November 18, the new deadline for a final decision on the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. However, we don’t think it’s positive that Kwasniewski’s biggest hope is for a scenario in which Yanukovych gives Tymoshenko a so-called partial pardon, particularly when she refuses to submit such a request in writing.

Yatsenyuk’s statements on October 15 on behalf of Tymoshenko are more troubling, in our view.  We believe it’s impossible that Yanukovych will grant amnesty, and it’s highly unlikely he will pardon her, even partially as being advocated by Kwasniewski. Moreover, Tymoshenko said early this month she’d agree to a compromise that doesn’t involve her full political rehabilitation. In light of that statement, we believe the best solution to the conflict is some version of Yefremov’s proposal, which Tymoshenko has apparently rejected.

We hope that Yatsenyuk’s October 15 statement is a mere negotiating tactic by the Tymoshenko camp and she will agree to a solution that doesn’t involve a pardon. Our position has been that all sides to the conflict must offer a significant compromise towards a solution. Under the Yefremov proposal, the Yanukovych administration’s compromise would be releasing Tymoshenko for medical treatment. Tymoshenko’s compromise would be not returning for the 2015 presidential election, which would meet the EU goal of ensuring that she doesn’t return to prison, even if it doesn’t conform to democratic ideals. The EU’s compromise would be signing the Association Agreement and backing down on Tymoshenko’s political rehabilitation. That’s an example of a scenario in which all sides win and we expect an arrangement along these lines to emerge at the last minute.