Ukraine Communists rally for Eurasian Union referendum

The Communist Party of Ukraine held a rally on September 8 to gather signatures for conducting a referendum to join the Eurasian Union. Also sponsoring the rally was the Ukrainian Choice civic movement led by Ukrainian Viktor Medvedchuk, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The rally was held in defiance of a court order issued earlier this week forbidding it.

“After signing the (Ukraine-EU) Association Agreement, Ukraine will lose its sovereignty and won’t be able to change anything in the state or domestic politics,” said Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko, as reported by the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper. “The state will cease to function.”

Zenon Zawada: The September 8 rally mustered 2,500 supporters, Kommersant reported, enough for a 2,000-person quorum required to initiate a referendum. The next step involves the Central Election Commission reviewing documents approved at the meeting within 10 days. If that’s done, the initiators will have 40 days to collect 3 million signatures from Ukrainian citizens in favor of the referendum. The Communists are sure they will collect 4 million by October’s end, just a month before the Vilnius summit where Ukraine is scheduled to sign the Association Agreement. Symonenko and the Communists are aiming for that to force the government to postpone the Agreement’s signing.

Though there are millions of Ukrainians who would support the Customs Union, they are traditionally a passive electorate incapable of mobilizing themselves, as this weekend’s rally demonstrated. Moreover, the administration of President Viktor Yanukovych could use authoritarian-style tactics to set up hurdles to prevent the Association Agreement from being undermined. Such hurdles can emerge from the Central Election Commission, which administers the referendum process.

We are confident the only thing that can derail the signing of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement in late November is Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych himself. As we’ve stated, the wild card is the fate of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.