Ukraine will fulfill EU Association Agreement requirements, president says

The Ukrainian government will fulfill the requirements of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, a course that is “unobjectionable” and “without doubt,” Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said in an interview with television journalists on August 29. “Today, I don’t see any impediments to signing this document,” he said. “These conditions, given to us by the European Commission, will be fulfilled. I don’t have any doubts. Ukraine’s European choice is fixed in Ukrainian legislation and can’t be put under doubt, he said.

 

Zenon Zawada: Until the trade conflict erupted two weeks ago, it wasn’t certain whether Yanukovych would forgo the Customs Union lead Ukraine towards signing the EU Association Agreement. His recent statements, including those made yesterday, confirm that his main foreign policy goal this year is signing the Association Agreement.

 

At the same time, this government has demonstrated a pattern of making statements that aren’t fulfilled or don’t reflect reality. It’s already clear the Yanukovych administration won’t fulfill all the EU’s 11 outlined requirements, not only because some of them undermine the government’s domestic goals. There is also limited time in passing the necessary legislation and implementing the necessary reforms in time for the November 28-29 summit in Vilnius. 

 

Among the key requirements put forth by the EU leadership is arranging for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, for which we think there’s a 50/50 chance. We believe Yanukovych will do his best to avoid this requirement and try to take advantage of the EU leadership’s heavy interest in signing the agreement, as demonstrated by recent statements. At the same time, Yanukovych might see advantages in Tymoshenko’s release, such as introducing yet another player in the crowded field of opposition candidates in which there’s no favorite.