Russia preparing for EU-Ukraine pact, which will be detrimental,officials say

The Russian Customs Service’s tightened restrictions on Ukrainian imports was a rehearsal should the Ukrainian government sign the Association Agreement with the EU, said Igor Sevastianov, a senior advisor at the Russian consulate in Ukraine. “We have concerns that in the event of signing this agreement, there could be overflow or squeezing out onto our markets ,or the re-export of goods altogether from the EU through Ukraine and Turkey into our market,” he said, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news wire. “That’s why a rehearsal was held on the possible measures to strengthen control, even more so Ukraine is transitioning to rules guiding goods received from the EU.”  

The decision for tightened customs control was determined exclusively by customs organs, he said. That version was confirmed by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who said in an August 29 television interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin told him in a telephone conversation that he wasn’t aware of the trade restrictions imposed on Ukrainian imports.  

The Russian government is not imposing any decisions that the Ukrainian government and people are supposed to decide independently, said Aleksandr Lukashevich, an official spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry. Lukashevich dismissed claims from the EU leadership – particularly EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton and EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule – that the Russian government is trying to undermine the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, using economic and political levers “to all but blackmail Ukraine” in getting it to join the Customs Union.  

At the same time, Lukashevich said the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement doesn’t offer any benefits to Ukraine, but will lead to the deindustrialization of the Ukrainian economy, making it essentially a market for goods from the EU. Economists that specialize in international trade have concluded that the agreement will bring “hard times” for Ukraine in the short- and mid-term, including higher unemployment and worsening trade and current account balances. 

 “Independent experts estimate the economic effect from implementing the agreement will be negative up until 2020, and the ‘manna from heaven’ promised to Kyiv by the EU in the long term – in the form of investment and technological inflows – isn’t guaranteed by any concrete requirements,” he said. Objectively speaking, the agreement will lead to an essential worsening of trade conditions between Ukraine and the countries of the Customs Union, he said. 

Zenon Zawada: As is usually the case in politics, the Russians’ argument is based on an embellished truth. A local newspaper said the Russians had been warning the Ukrainian government since early this year that it would begin to tighten customs procedures, which top Ukrainian authorities didn’t take seriously. But the same publication published a document it claimed to have gained from an anonymous source in the Russian government that indicate a plan to undermine the Association Agreement, with an economic blockade being one element of that plan. We find these reports credible.