EU takes “infantile position” in Ukraine-Russia conflict, key diplomat says

The European Union (EU) has been hiding its head in the sand during Ukraine’s recent trade conflict with the Russian Federation, EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Cooperation Committee Chairman Pawel Kowal said in an essay published on August 24. He deemed such a response “to open blackmail of a trade war” as “an infantile position.” Ukraine especially needs a clear statement from Brussels and support in its conflict with Russia, he wrote.

Ukraine has failed to fulfill all the requirements of signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, Kowal said. In particular, necessary reforms haven’t been conducted in the justice and electoral systems, he said.

Russia will intensify its pressure in the three remaining months leading up to the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29. The key task for Ukraine and the EU will be to “outlast this time,” he wrote. Once the agreement is signed, the Russian government will “accept the obvious and start to simply cooperate,” Kowal said. Meanwhile, the EU will have “to develop a plan to respond to Russian annoyance,” he wrote.

Zenon Zawada: Kowal might have reached the EU leadership with his strongly worded, critical essay. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton reportedly told the Estonian prime minister on August 26, “We can’t lose Ukraine,” as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

What’s even more noteworthy, besides the EU’s weak response to the trade conflict, is the ebbing importance of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the remarks of EU leaders. Kowal stated in his essay that “it’s hard to foresee the fate of the former prime minister,” striking a far softer tone than previous EU statements declaring the necessity of her release from prison. Meanwhile, Ashton’s rather dramatic statement implies the EU leadership’s willingness to overlook the Ukrainian government’s many shortcomings in meeting EU requirements, including arranging for Tymoshenko’s release.

Kowal’s comments are a bit optimistic and underestimate the Russian position, referring to its government’s “irritation” rather than its anger or fury. We argue that Russian President Vladimir Putin realizes that his entire foreign policy and even political legacy rests on undermining the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement and getting Ukraine integrated into the Eurasian Union. Kowal correctly stated that we will need to outlast the turbulence of the next three months, but we believe the Russian government won’t rest once the agreement is signed. After all, the stakes of losing Ukraine are far greater than the Baltic states or even Georgia.