Ukraine goods trade deficit narrows to USD 0.6 bln in April
17 June 2013
Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit declined to USD 608.5 mln in April, which is 2.4x less than a year ago, or USD 1.5 bln, according to state statistics released on June 14. Exports increased 4.7% yoy while imports declined 8.1% yoy in April.
Alexander Paraschiy: An energy imports decline (-28.7% yoy) and mineral products exports upsurge (+44.0% yoy) were the main reasons for such positive results. A decrease in energy imports is of little surprise after the Cabinet revised the state’s energy balance with serious cuts in natural gas purchases. Yet the sharp increase in mineral products exports was unexpected, which was primarily the result of a jump in iron ore exports (46.3% yoy), which we do not expect to extend beyond this month.
Also worth noting is the high statistical base set last year in the machinery segment by intensive imports of equipment related to EURO 2012 (for instance, imports of Hyundai trains). As a result, machinery equipment imports fell significantly, by 19.2% yoy.
Despite the improved trade balance and the state’s declared intention to further cut gas imports, we are keeping our forecast for the 2013 trade deficit unchanged at USD 16.0 bln (UkrStat methodology) and USD 20.6 bln (NBU methodology).
