Foreign Ministry denies report on Customs Union agreement

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry denied on March 14 Ukrainian media reports that the government agreed to become an associate member of the Customs Union. “You are aware of Ukraine’s position regarding cooperation with the Customs Union and the president stated it repeatedly – we want cooperation in the format of 3+1 and consultations are ongoing regarding that,” said a Foreign Ministry spokesman. “It’s premature to talk about any agreement.”

The same day, the Weekly Mirror news site reported that a delegation representing the administration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych traveled to Moscow this week and reached an agreement with the Russian Federation government to create an “associated membership” status for Ukraine with the Customs Union. “Since this format is unprecedented for participation in the Customs Union, its legal basis has yet to be formed,” reported the Weekly Mirror news site, citing an anonymous source in the Cabinet of Ministers. The “associated member” status will enable the Ukrainian government to have access to all Customs Union documents, learn its decision-making process, and be present at its hearings as observers. A government post of representative to the Customs Union will be created as well, the report said. The Foreign Ministry spokesman declined to confirm whether a Ukrainian delegation was in Moscow this week.

Zenon Zawada: The foreign policy strategy of the Yanukovych administration is to delay as much as possible membership in any supranational structures. The status quo is its ideal situation since it gives Yanukovych’s team the widest authority without having to comply with foreign restrictions, namely Europe’s legal and rights requirements and Russia’s trade rules. If the Ukrainian government reaches any arrangement with the Customs Union, the conditions deserve close examination. Yet any arrangement short of full membership is a victory for the Yanukovych administration, enabling it to extend its comfortable negotiating position with both Brussels and Moscow, rather than uniting with one structure and losing its lever of influence on the other.

We expect the Yanukovych administration will pursue association-type arrangements with both the European Union and Customs Union, without getting too cozy with either. The question remains of how long the Russian government will be willing to tolerate the Ukrainians keeping their distance from the Customs Union as the Yanukovych administration will try to do so indefinitely.