Industry down 1.5% for 11M2012

Industrial output declined 3.7% yoy in November, extending the recession to six months, UkrStat reported on Dec. 17.  The cumulative 11M12 decline stood at 1.5%. In line with trends, oil refinery (-30.3%), machinery (-6.8%), chemical industry (-3.9%) and metallurgy (-2.1%) contributed the most to the output drop. The utilities and mining sectors also continued falling, with -8.8% yoy and -2.9% yoy respectively.

Alexander Paraschiy: The industrial figures are in line with our expectations of feeble external demand.  By the end of 2012, the result will be close to our estimate of -1.7% yoy.  Next year, we assume some revival of the markets but still the rebound will be only marginal. We project +1.5% to +2.0% for 2013.