Opposition gains ground in latest poll

Ukraine’s opposition parties are polling ahead of pro-presidential parties according to a new survey released yesterday by the Rating Group. Opposition parties (headed by Arseniy Yatseniuk, who joined with Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party for the upcoming parliamentary election) had an aggregate 36.1% of support from people who intended to vote, while pro-presidential forces drew 29.9%. According to Rating Group, the number of people who intend to vote has grown in the last two months – from 68% of respondents in May to 73% in July. Rating also indicated the largest percentage of undecided voters were now in South and Eastern Ukraine, regions where the Communist Party has been gaining ground.

Political party support

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Party                             July 2012
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Fatherland (Yatseniuk)      25.5%
Party of Regions (Azarov)  20.3%
Udar (Klitschko)               10.6%
Communists (Symonenko) 9.6%
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Total opposition               36.1%
Total pro-presidential       29.9%
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Note: Opposition & pro-presidential is an aggregate for all parties that received more than 5.0% of support in the poll. Opposition includes Fatherland (Tymoshenko Bloc + Front of Changes) and Udar; Pro-presidential includes the Party of Regions and Communists. The survey was conducted July 14-27 with 2,000 respondents. Margin of error ±2.2%.
Source: Rating Group

Brad Wells: We expect the opposition to get a majority of votes on the party-section of the ballot this October. The constituency side of the ballot, where the other 50% of seats will be allocated from, is a different story that should go in the Party of Region’s favor as it draws its support from the most densely populated regions of the country in the east.