Ukraine GDP up 3.0% yoy in 2Q12

Ukraine’s GDP grew 3.0% yoy in 2Q12 (up 1.9% qoq in seasonally-adjusted terms), according to UkrStat yesterday. In 1H12, GDP was up 2.5% yoy.

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk: GDP growth came in quite strong last quarter, which we think is due to a push in demand from guests attending Euro-2012. The 2H12 is going to be much weaker in terms of growth as external demand remains stagnant and the grain crop harvest will decline by at least 20% yoy due to unfavorable weather conditions. We maintain our 2012E GDP growth projection at 1.9% but think that risks to this forecast are currently to the downside.