Ukraine steel export revenue bounces back 20% mom in April

Ukraine’s export revenue from steel products recovered 20% mom to USD 1.5 bln in April 2012, according to UkrStat, up from USD 1.1 bln in February and USD 1.3 bln in March. Steel products’ portion of the country’s total exports increased to 27%, from 22% in the previous two months. Export revenues for the sector were down 12% yoy at USD 5.4 bln in 4M12.

Roman Topolyuk: Revenues from steel exports in April followed increases in steel production of 18% mom in March and 2% mom in April, accompanied by an advance in prices, which indicates some destocking of finished products in April. Taking into account a mere 1% mom decline in steel production in May, and a 2-4% cut in prices, exports from steel products might decrease up to 5% mom in May, before experiencing a steeper cut in June on a sharper decline in prices and slowing down of steel production.  We expect June production figures to be released in a week. We believe this might put some short-term pressure on the hryvnya exchange rate until August when the steel market might pick back up again.