Ukrainian power output grows 3% yoy in 2011

Ukraine’s thermal generation companies (GenCos) increased electricity production 8.7% yoy to 73.7 TWh in 2011, the Energy Ministry reported yesterday. Electricity production from other sources remained flat yoy at 120.1 TWh, which put total output in Ukraine at 193.9 TWh (+3.2% yoy). The best performer among GenCos was Zakhidenergo (ZAEN UK): +23.1% yoy, mainly due to a low comparison base; in 2010, its output shrank 11% yoy on a halt in exports, which resumed last year. Centrenergo (CEEN  UK) was the worst performer in 2011 with only 1.1% yoy increase on a high comparison base; in 2010 it boosted output 8.1% yoy on demand from Belarus.

Electricity production in Ukraine in 2011

Company         Ticker  TWh,2011    yoy  Capacity load
—————————————————-
Centrenergo    CEEN UK     14.8   1.1%            37%
Dniproenergo  DNEN UK     17.3  10.4%            34%
Donbasenergo DOEN UK      8.8   8.6%            37%
Zakhidenergo  ZAEN UK     14.0  23.1%            35%
DTEK (est.)*    DTEKUA      55.3  11.0%            40%
—————————————————-
Ukraine total                     193.9   3.2%            41%
—————————————————-
* Includes Vostokenergo, Dniproenergo, Zakhidenergo and Kyivenergo
Source: Energy Ministry

Alexander Paraschiy: As expected, the coal-fired power GenCos were the main driver of the increase in electricity output. We expect electricity demand in Ukraine to grow 2.6% yoy in 2012, with most of the growth again contributed by thermal power plants. This should drive demand for thermal energy and domestic demand for steam coal by 6.8% yoy. We believe the main beneficiaries will be private energy holding DTEK (DTEKUA), domestic-focused producers Dniproenergo (DNEN UK) and Donbasenergo (DOEN UK), and coal miners Sadovaya Group (SGR PW) and Coal Energy (CLE PW).