About 5,000 Ukrainians from various opposition parties celebrated Independence Day by protesting the imprisonment of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in Kyiv, in defiance of court orders prohibiting their assembly in the downtown area. The police presence, as expected, was large and only minor scuffles were reported. Brad Wells: We are skeptical that yesterday’s protests mark a major shift in momentum for the opposition as the government has shown – with its police presence and court orders banning assembly – that it is ready to clamp down on activity before it can take off. The prosecution of Tymoshenko, who is on trial for signing gas contracts with Russia in 2009 that were not in the nation’s best interest, has failed to change the attitudes of the majority of Ukrainians that do not support her, according to results released this week by the Razumkov Center. Tymoshenko’s “disapproval” rating is 60.1% of the population vs. 59.0% six months ago in February, well within the survey’s 2.3% margin of error. The poll results highlight one of the Ukrainian opposition’s main obstacles – in Ukraine’s personality-driven political party system, the identity of the leader is everything and Tymoshenko is one of the most polarizing figures in the country.