Regions support erodes further according to new opinion poll

Popular support for the Party of Regions fell to 20.5% in January-February, from 26.7% in October 2010 and 39.1% in May 2010, according to the results of a new opinion poll conducted by the respected Razumkov Center in Kyiv. The ratings for other major political parties remained at similar levels to the fall: support for the main opposition party, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc was 12.5% in January-February, vs. 12.4% in October. The survey was conducted from January 27 to February 2, 2011 and included 2,009 participants; the margin of error was ±2.3%. Brad Wells: The Party of Regions’ falling poll numbers have led some major party figures, all the way up to Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, to talk in public recently of shying away from some unpopular reforms, including raising the retirement age for women as part of an overhaul to the pension system and another 50% raise in gas tariffs for consumers this summer – both of which Ukraine promised the International Monetary Fund as part of its standby loan program. In our view, Azarov and company are eager to avoid a repeat of last year’s popular protests over tax code reform and will seek ways to get the public behind proposed changes without triggering unrest. However, with a major nationwide election not on the calendar for this year and all major government bodies (President, Cabinet of Ministers, parliamentary coalition) on the same page, we remain optimistic Ukraine will stick to its commitments to the IMF and push ahead with its reform agenda (see our politics note of February 1 for more on proposed reforms).