Car production in Ukraine declines 84% yoy in 2009

——-  ———————-   ——  ——-  —–
Company  Brands                          2009     2008  Chg,%
——-  ———————-   ——  ——-  —–
ZAZ      Tavria,Daewoo,VAZ,Opel   43,958  252,476   -83%
Bogdan   VAZ,KIA,Hyundai           14,386   87,328   -84%
KrASZ    VAZ,Ssang Young            3,738   25,036   -85%
Eurocar  Skoda,VW,Audi,Seat        3,564   35,892   -90%
——-  ———————-   ——  ——-  —–
Total                                           65,646  400,799   -84%
——-  ———————-   ——  ——-  —–
New car sales in Ukraine               175,165  623,252   -72%
Ukr producers share in new sales     37%      64%
——-  ———————-   ——  ——-  —–
Note: ZAZ,Eurocar,KrASZ are not public companies
Source: Ukrautoprom

Yegor Samusenko: In 2009, Ukrainian automobile market posted one of the highest drops in production in the world, 3.6x yoy. We view three reasons for the decline: (1) the fall in real disposable income, (2) 60% hryvnya depreciation and (3) the tightening of car loans extended by banks. We expect a recovery in the domestic auto market in 2010, with a 30-50% increase in demand driven mainly by the renewal in banking loans for car purchases, which constituted up to 2/3 of new car purchases before the financial crisis hit.