Ukraine Hopes for Smooth Turkmen Succession

Prime Minister Yanukovich said Ukraine had lost a “great friend” in Turkmen president Saparmurat Niyazov, whose death raised questions “for Ukraine and other countries that sit on the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan.” Yanukovich’s deputy for the energy sector, Andry Klyuyev, said it was “difficult to predict whether relations will change” but Ukraine would do “everything possible” to ensure stable gas supplies. Their statements came as Russian television reported that one of Niyazov’s potential successors had been arrested. Tom Warner: Ukraine has sufficient reserves to cope with any temporary gas supply reduction if the situation in Turkmenistan gets chaotic. However, a cut-off is very unlikely, as Turkmenistan depends completely on gas exports and its only large export pipeline leads towards Russia and Ukraine. Although it is unclear who is in power in Ashgabat, the streets are quiet – if there is a factional struggle, it is going on behind closed doors. Most of the few outsiders who have spent time in Ashgabat report that Russia is by far the most active foreign power there, so it seems most likely that the new Turkmen leader will be a Russian ally.